Influence Factors and a Predictive Scoring Model for Measuring the Biochemical Response of Primary Biliary Cholangitis to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment
Aims: The biochemical response after ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment contributes to predicting the prognosis for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) patients.This study aimed to establish a score model that can be used for predicting the biochemical response.Methods: A total of 218 patients in the derivation group and 66 in the verification group were enrolled.Response endpoints were based on the Barcelona criteria combined with the Paris I criteria.We determined independent factors of the biochemical response by univariate and multivariate analyses.Then,we established a predictive score model based on regression coefficients after adjusted multivariate analyses.Results: The median follow-up length in the derivation and verification group was 12.9 and 12.2 months,respectively.Multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjusting for sex and age indicated that First-UDCA treatment (OR =2.543,95%CI: 1.234-5.240,P =0.011),baseline ALT level (OR =1.265,95%CI: 1.089-1.471,P =0.002),and baseline TBIL level (OR =0.571,95%CI: 0.420-0.776,P < 0.001) were independent influence factors of the biochemical response in PBC patients after 1 year of UDCA treatment.Therefore,the resulting biochemical response prediction score model represented the sum of the points corresponding to these three variables.The area under the ROC curve of the score model in the derivation group and verification group was 0.763 (95%CI: 0.701-0.817,P < 0.001) and 0.798 (95%CI: 0.681-0.887,P < 0.001),respectively.Conclusions: We developed and verified an easy-to-use scoring model for the first time,which showed excellent predictive value for the biochemical response in PBC patients.
score model factors biochemical response ursodeoxycholic acid primary biliary cholangitis
Jialiang Chen Dongying Xue Fangyuan Gao Le Tao Yuxin Li Qun Zhang Rui Wang Le Sun Xue Yang Yao Liu Bingbing Zhu Shuaishuai Niu Xianbo Wang
Center of Integrative Medicine,Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing 100015, China
国际会议
北京
英文
2-14
2019-03-30（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）