Case Study on Numerical Prediction Model of Typhoon and Storm Surge at Yangtze Estuary in Shanghai
In order to effectively improve the accuracy of storm surge numerical prediction,a numerical prediction model of typhoon tide in the Yangtze River estuary was constructed based on the study object of coastal area of the Yangtze River estuary in Shanghai.The model can simulate the changing process of the tidal level under the influence of multiple factors such as storm surge and astronomical tide.In order to verify the model,the super typhoon Talim No.1718 was selected as a typical case,and the tracing prediction was conducted on storm water increase caused by this typhoon.It has been verified that the central position of the Typhoon Talim is 400km away from the coast of Shanghai,and does not cause storm water increase above 1.0m; and the average mean square error of the predicted tide level is 0.11m,and the forecast accuracy is good,which can meet the storm surge forecasting requirements.
storm surge Yangtze River estuary numerical prediction water increase forecasting accuracy
Xiao Mengjie Sun Li Pan Chonglun Qiu Shaowei Chen Sheng
Shanghai Flood Control Information Center,Shanghai 200050,China
国际会议
重庆
英文
441-445
2019-05-30（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）