Analysis and Prediction for Stability of Country

摘要：

　　Climate change has become a serious problem and has even been proved to have influenced a countrys stability.In this paper,countrys stability evaluation and prediction system is presented.A comprehensive index named Stability Index to measure a countrys stability is produced with the help of Analytic Hierarchy Process.To explain climate changes impact on Stability Index,4 different forecast models is selected from Grey Relational Model and Time Series Analysis Method to predict other indicators respectively under the assumption of certain indicators from environmental aspects unchanged.The Cubic Exponential Smoothing Method from Time Series Analysis Method is adopt to predict American Stability Index in the future and several intervention plans and establish System Dynamics Model through the relations between the indicators is proposed.Results showed that countrys Stability Index can be predicted and intervened,the state can increase Stability Index by investing money through the intervention plans proposed in this paper.

关键词： Countrys stability Analytic Hierarchy Process Grey Model Time Series Analysis Method System Dynamics Model

作者: Fei Wang Qinghe Wang Wenjuan Cai Wen Fu Meng Wang Qingchang Wang

作者单位: Information Science and Technology College Dalian Maritime University Dalian,China College of Marine Electrical Engineering Dalian Maritime University Dalian,China School of Maritime Economics and Management Dalian Maritime University Dalian,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2019 2nd International Conference on Mechanical Engineering, Industrial Materials and Industrial Electronics (MEIMIE 2019)2019年第二届机械工程、工业材料和工业电子国际会议(Meimie 2019)

会议地点: 大连

会议语种:英文

页码: 423-432

在线出版日期: 2019-03-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）