Understanding the Propagation of Uncertainty in Concrete Material Sustainability Evaluation
The concrete industry is fixated on the idea that concrete can be produced sustainably to curb the injurious impacts of concrete consumption.Numerous research and technologies on sustainable concrete emerged recently in response to this idea;however, concrete sustainability remains elusive, and its evaluation is littered with uncertainties, producing contrary conclusions that give rise to debates between stakeholders.To advance the legitimacy of concrete sustainability evaluation, uncertainties in the evaluation process should be treated objectively.This paper contributes to this goal by tackling the subject of uncertainty propagation in concrete material sustainability evaluation that arises from: (1) indicator selection-inclusion/exclusion of indicators;(2) choice of normalization method to compare disparate indicators;(3) weighting schemes-to express the importance of indicators;and (4) the type of indicator aggregation.A combination of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses was utilized to demonstrate the effect of these uncertainties on the sustainability ranking of concrete mix alternatives.The results show that uncertainties causing variability in ranking propagate to each alternative unevenly.This further leads to the identification of non-influential sources of uncertainties, which is beneficial in refining and supporting the robustness of the evaluation result, and the subsequent decisions to be made regarding sustainable concrete.
Concrete sustainability Uncertainty analysis Sensitivity analysis Concrete Sustainability Indicators Indicator weighting
J.Opon M.Henry
Graduate School of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan Faculty of Engineering, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan
国际会议
福州
英文
659-667
2018-11-04（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）