Comparative analysis of fault tree in probability security assessment and reliability estimation

摘要：

　　Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is an important method of probabilistic security assessment.The qualitative analysis of FTA can show the failure modes by using minimum cut sets.The quantitative analysis can calculate the probability of the top event and the criticality importance to rank the importance of basic events.In reliability estimation, the failure probability can be estimated by using a coherent structural function of a fault tree, and then global sensitivity analysis can be employed to determine important variables.The sensitivity estimators and importance orders are related to the distribution types and parameters of variables.The comparative analysis of FTA in probability security assessment and reliability estimation are implemented by using several fault trees of engineering structures.It is shown that failure probabilities are consistent in most cases.However, due to the introduction of random uncertainty of basic variables, the importance order of the basic events will be changed, even completely changed.

关键词： Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) Probabilistic security assessment Reliability estimation Failure probability Criticality importance Global sensitivity analysis

作者: Shu-fang SONG Yi-yan MA Lu WANG

作者单位: School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xian, 710072, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2018 International Conference on Defence Technology (2018国际防务技术会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 865-870

在线出版日期: 2018-10-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）