Quantitative evaluation method for detailed volatility of wind power at multiple time scales
With the increasing proportion of wind power integration, the adverse influences of wind power volatility on the safe and stable operation of the electric power system are becoming more obvious.It is significant to describe the detailed volatility of wind power accurately.However, less attention has paid to quantify the detailed volatility of wind power.Therefore, this study proposes a quantitative evaluation method for detailed volatility of wind power at multiple time scales.First, the volatility indexes which can evaluate the detailed fluctuation characteristics of wind power are proposed, including the upper confidence limit, lower confidence limit and confidence interval of power variables under the certain confidence level.Then, the wind turbine output is used to illustrate the application of the proposed indexes at multiple time scales (year -season-month-day) in the calculation time windows of 10 min, 30 min, 1 h and 4 h.Finally, the relationships between wind power forecasting accuracy and its volatility are analyzed to further verify the effectiveness of the proposed indexes.The results show that the proposed volatility indexes can effectively describe the detailed fluctuation characteristics of wind power at multiple time scales.This work will provide great reference for the reserve capacity planning and the optimization dispatch of electric power systems with high proportion renewable energy.
Wind power Volatility Multiple time scales Typical days Forecasting accuracy
Yongqian Liu Han Wang Li Li
North China Electric Power University, No.2 Beinong Road, Beijing 102206, P.R.China
国际会议
法国巴黎
英文
330-336
2019-03-13（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）