The Study of Flood Forecast Based on Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

摘要：

　　Ensemble forecast which makes up for the lack of the single forecast,is a shift from deterministic forecast to probabilistic forecast.Based on the above ideas,this paper takes the Jianghua as study basin,and uses the ECWMF ensemble forecast precipitation data to drive the flood forecasting model for flood forecasting.The result shows that the ensemble forecast flood forecasting can get the range of runoff simulation.And 75%of the process line Q75 is used as a deterministic process line which can simulate the flood well.The method not only ensures the accuracy of flood forecast,but also prevents the period of flood.Reliability of the application of ensemble forecast in flood forecast is proved.

作者: Yang Xiao Xin Wu Ye Wang Deqin Cao

作者单位: WULING POWER CORPORATION LTD.,Changsha,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2018 International Symposium on Water System Operations(ISWRSO 2018)(2018年水资源系统及调度国际研讨会)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-5

在线出版日期: 2018-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）