Runoff forecasting benefit evaluation for long-term power generation scheduling

摘要：

　　Long-term runoff forecasting important reference significance for the long-term planning of cascade hydropower stations.The traditional forecast accuracy evaluation is based on the deviation between the predicted runoff and the measured hydrological sequence,but fails to consider the effect on long-term scheduling.In this paper,a runoff forecasting evaluation method for long-term scheduling is presented.First,a monthly distribution method based on the forecast value of annual runoff is proposed to describe the uncertainty of the forecast.Then,a power generation plan model with the maximum generation objective and an actual generation benefit evaluation model are established to study the effect of runoff forecasting in scheduling.At last two indexes of “Incremental generation and “Incremental benefit based on the comparison of actual benefit with and without a forecast plan are given to evaluate the performance of forecasting.The case study shows that the proposed evaluation method can reflect the actual benefit brought by the forecast information,which provide more practical guidance for the hydropower station.

作者: Xiaoling Ding Jianzhong Zhou Xiaocong Mo Chao Wang Yongqiang Wang

作者单位: School of Hydropower and Informaiton Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Techonlogy,Wuhan School of Hydropower and Informaiton Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Techonlogy,Wuhan Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute of Changjiang Water Resource Commission,Wuhan 430074, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2018 International Symposium on Water System Operations(ISWRSO 2018)(2018年水资源系统及调度国际研讨会)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-5

在线出版日期: 2018-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）