Synchronous-Asynchronous Encounter Probability Analysis of High-Low Runoff for Jinsha River,China,using Copulas

摘要：

　　Synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability analysis of high-low runoff,which requires a description of the probabilistic properties of hydrological variables,is important in regional water resources management.This study aims to investigate this encounter probability for Jinsha River and its tributary Yalong River in southwest China.A bivariate distribution is used to model the runoff variables of the two rivers based on Copula theory.The Copula is a function that links the univariate marginal distributions to form the bivariate distribution.The bivariate distribution is then employed to determine joint and conditional probabilities.The study results indicate the encounter probability of mainstream runoff and tributary runoff in different periods,also illustrate the mainstream runoff distribution under the condition of knowing the tributary runoff distribution.

作者: CHEN Jing GU Shixiang ZHANG Tianli

作者单位: Yunnan Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Survey Design and Research Institute,Kunming 650021,China;Key Laboratory of urban and rural water safety and water saving and emission reduction in Yunnan,Kunming 650201,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2018 International Symposium on Water System Operations(ISWRSO 2018)(2018年水资源系统及调度国际研讨会)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-11

在线出版日期: 2018-10-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）