A Hybrid Uncertainty Propagation Method for System Risk Assessment
This paper proposes a hybrid uncertainty propagation approach for system risk assessment.In view of hybrid uncertainty propagation with parameters dependency of variables in risk assessment,a two level hybrid uncertainty propagation framework was proposed,in which inner and outer parameters are characterized with probability and possibility respectively,the numerical values are calculated by Monte Carlo(MC)simulation and fuzzy extension principle.In consideration of the dependency of epidemic uncertainty parameters,an epidemic uncertainty parameter dependency model is designed and a dependency coefficient is proposed.Then the proposed method was compared with the conventional two level MC.Finally,taking the safety of one hydrogen and oxygen co-bottom tank an example,the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method was validated.
Risk assessment Hybrid uncertainty Monte Carlo Epidemic uncertainty
Yongsheng Duan Tengda Xin Bao Cui Na An Guoyu Bai
Key Laboratory of Space Launching Site Reliability Technology,Haikou,China;Space engineering univers Space engineering university,Beijing,China China Satellite Maritime Tracking and Controlling Department,Jiangyin,China Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center,Jiuquan,China
国际会议
深圳
英文
249-256
2018-10-27（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）