Assessment of Extreme Risk for Egg Price Fluctuation in Beijing City
This paper cites Beijing city as an empirical example and assesses extreme risks for egg price fluctuation using block maximum method(BMM)from extreme value theory(EVT).It is shown that the generalized extreme value distribution(GEV)can provide a promising solution to modeling extreme risks for egg price fluctuation.Specifically,the cycle of the egg price fluctuation in Beijing city is determined to be about 3-year,and Type III Extreme distribution(Weibull)has a weighted advantage of modeling extreme risk for fall in egg price,and the extreme risk for rise in egg price obeyed the Type II Extreme distribution(Frechet).Given the scenario of the 3-year price cycle,the egg price fluctuation ratios in Beijing city fall into the interval no more than 30 percent from the average which represents a high probability of occurrence while fluctuation ratios falling into extreme interval(exceeding 40%)had a relatively small probability.
egg price fluctuation extreme risk assessment BMM method Beijing city
Xu Lei Wang Bingbing
Agricultural Information Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing,China,100081;Center for Science and Technology Economic Policy,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing,China,100081
国际会议
大连
英文
80-84
2018-07-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）