DEVELOPING ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODEL OF TWO-LANE HIGHWAY ON THE PLATEAU

摘要：

　　Based on the analysis of the traffic flow,in this research,roadside environment and traffic safety data of Qinghai-Tibet highway,the characteristics of road traffic and the influence of altitude,oxygen content,traffic flow and environment on the traffic accidents were studied.A non-rural road accident prediction model based on zero-inflation Poisson and an accident prediction model based on negative binomial distribution were established.In the paper,the effect of oxygen content,the proportion of large vehicles and the direction distribution coefficient of the traffic flow on the number of accidents in the rural roads were studied.The results indicate that there are significant differences between the characteristics of rural road accidents and non-rural road accidents.Roadside hazard level and the access density respectively have the most significant influence on the number of non-rural road and rural road accidents.

关键词： traffic engineering Qinghai-Tibet Plateau two-lane highway zero-inflation Poisson distribution negative binomial distribution accident prediction model

作者: Bingbing Feng Yulong He Guixian Qu Mingyang Jia

作者单位: Beijing University of Technology,Beijing Key Laboratory of traffic engineering,Beijing 100124

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2016 International Symposium on Civil and Environmental Engineering(2016年土木与环境工程国际研讨会)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-6

在线出版日期: 2016-12-20（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）