The Impact from the Error of Transitional Probability on Step Change Detection

摘要：

　　In order to effectively managing inventory systems facing with demand changes, it is investigated that the impact of the forecast error of transitional probability on the effectiveness of detecting step changes.The impact is studied based on a latest step change detection method by both theoretical analysis and numerical experiments.The results show that the errors both overestimation and underestimation of transitional probability are harmful to the performance of inventory management, but the impact of overestimating the transitional probability is different to that of underestimating.Observations from this study suggest that supply chain managers should pay careful attention on differentiating the error of overestimation from that of underestimation and managing their emotion when forecasting the transitional probability.To facilitate application, it is also provided that the explicit expression of the condition under which using transitional probability with forecast error is better than not using.

关键词： logistics inventory management supply chain management step change detection forecast error

作者: Zhi-ru JUAN Hai-yan WANG

作者单位: School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China;School of Management, Nanji School of Economics and Management, Southeast University, Nanjing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 6th International Conference on Logistics and Supply Chain Management 2016(第六届物流工程与供应链管理国际研讨会)

会议地点: 长沙

会议语种:英文

页码: 58-64

在线出版日期: 2016-12-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）