Comprehensive Prediction of Chinas Power Demand Based on Induced Ordered Weighted Geometric Averaging (IOWGA)Operator and Optimal Judgment

摘要：

　　A comprehensive prediction model based on induced ordered weighted geometric averaging (IOWGA) operator and optimal judgment is proposed for Chinas power demand prediction. This method provided here combines the characteristics and advantages of trend extrapolation methods 、elastic coefficient method and regression analysis method by introducing IOWGA operators, which overcomes the deficiencies of traditional prediction model of power demand in terms of assigning weights. Optimal judgment model is introduced to calculate and determine the weights by setting the highest prediction accuracy as target value, which shows excellent prediction effect. This paper predicted Chinas power demand during the 13th Five-Year period using the comprehensive prediction model mentioned above and achieved the expected results.

关键词： IOWGA Operator Optimal Judgment Power Demand Comprehensive Prediction

作者: Zhang Xiaotian Pan Xiao Zhang Mingli Wang Yihe

作者单位: State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Company Limited Economic Research Institute,Shenyang,110015

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2016中国国际供电会议(CICED2016)

会议地点: 西安

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-5

在线出版日期: 2016-09-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）