Operational risk assessment of distribution network with consideration of PV output uncertainties

摘要：

　　As a large amount of photovoltaics integrating into distribution system, uncertainties of PV output have significant impacts on system operation. This paper proposes an operational risk assessment framework for distribution network with high penetration of PVs. With consideration of uncertainties, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model is developed to perform probabilistic forecasting on PV power productions. The impacts of PV outputs on system operation are measured by thermal and voltage severity indices. Operational risk indices are then calculated by multiplying the probabilities of PV outputs with the thermal and voltage severity indices. Case studies on an IEEE 53-bus test system validate the feasibility of the proposed framework that can help system operators quantify operational risk on distribution network with consideration of PV output uncertainties.

关键词： Probabilistic forecast PV forecasting Dynamic Bayesian network operational risk assessment

作者: Lingyun Tao Jinghan He Ying Wang Pei Zhang Hao Zhang Hanyun Wang Youzhong Miao Jianmin Wang

作者单位: School of Electrical Engineering,Beijing Jiaotong University State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Corporation Huzhou power supply company State Grid North Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Corporation Jiaxing power supply company

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2016中国国际供电会议(CICED2016)

会议地点: 西安

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-6

在线出版日期: 2016-09-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）