Study on the Model of Chemical Equipment Accident Evolution Based on the System Dynamics
It was very significantly to study the accident evolution trend and the discrepancy in each stage under the accident scenario of chemical equipment, the chemical equipment should be assessed by quantitative risk assessment, on this basis, the chemical equipment which should be intensive monitored and managed could be confirmed at first.Basing on the characteristics of system theory, information theory, structure theory, control theory, synergy theory in system dynamic(SD) methodology and the simulation function of the software Vensim to simulate it and analysis the simulation results.This paper using the Security protection performance → Accident potential riskas major variable indicators which was supplemented by the replenish and complete of multiple auxiliary variables (influence factors, such as the foundation section, auxiliary section, electrical equipment and facilities, transmission system, power system, normal management level, safety management system, the executive ability of the leadership and management agency and so on), and through the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for analysis and calculation of the weight of each subsystem, so that the chemical equipment evolution trend cause-effect diagrams of accident latency stage, accident germination stage, accident outbreak stage(divided into accident climax stage and accident decline stage) and accident recovery stage could be built.Combined the relationship between various factors to establish quantification functions, then to structure system diagram respectively and simulate it.The process of simulation required a combination of factors between theoretical analysis and practical association rules, else the related data, next to take the simulation results for effectiveness analysis and semitivity analysis, so as to get it more and more effectively and reasonably.Compared the simulated accident evolution trends and data differences in each stage of accident scenario, the simulation result showed that: The accident evolution trends of security protection performance and accident potential risk at chemical accident scenario differ significantly.Security protection performance in accident early stage and accident recovery stage was significantly higher than that in accident middle stage, and the accident potential risk was on the contrary.Through a comparative research, chemical equipment cost, process equipment update, monitoring and early warning played a direct and important role in security protection.In the early stage of accident potential risk would be very important, it would play a direct role in the state of accident recovery stage: excess recovery, almost recover and almost scrap.However, accident potential risk in accident middle stage was significantly higher than it was in accident early stage and accident recovery stage.Through the sensitivity analysis, chemical equipment cost, monitoring and early warning, safety manage level, emergency response capacity and the comprehensive state of chemical equipment were positive correlation, however, the process equipment update and the comprehensive state of chemical equipment was a negative correlation.By comparing with the past that performing quantitative risk analysis of chemical accident consequences in a single, the dynamic simulation studies of accident evolution process has made great progress in reality.
risk quantitative analysis chemical equipment accident evolvement system dynamic Vensim dynamic simulation
CHEN Wei WEN Jinfeng WANG Xuedong QIAN Chengjiang
College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 210009, Jiangsu, China Nanjing GUO Tai Xie Chuang Safety Technology Co., Ltd, Nanjing 210037, Jiangsu, China
国际会议
The 2016 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2016安全科学与技术国际会议)
昆明
英文
9-16
2016-10-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）