Development of an adaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model

摘要：

　　Extreme storm tide usually causes flooding of low-lying land in a coastal city.Hence, developing an efficient and accurate forecasting model for issuing a timely warning is important.In this study, an adaptive Kalman filter-based storm tide forecasting model was proposed and applied to the inner Harbor of Macau.The model is a dynamic linear regression model with the harmonic tidal prediction, wind speed, wind direction and atmospheric pressure as its input parameters.With persistence forecast of weather assumed during the prediction period, the model was tested with 40 cases of storm tide induced by tropical cyclones in Macau between 2005 and 2012.Success was found for forecasts with lead times up to 3 hours.The proposed adaptive model is considered a practical tool for storm tide forecast in small coastal cities.

关键词： Adaptive model Flooding Kalman filter Macau Storm tide

作者: K.M.Mok U.H.Lai K.I.Hoi

作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau Macau SAR, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Second Conference of Global Chinese Scholars on Hydrodynamics(第二届全球华人水动学学术会议)

会议地点: 江苏 无锡

会议语种:英文

页码: 176-183

在线出版日期: 2016-11-11（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）