Mortality Forecasting for China Based on the Corrections and the Long-run Equilibrium between China Mainland and Taiwan Province

摘要：

　　Human mortality rates, which reflect the extent of deaths, are one of the key researches of Population Science and Population Economics.Accurately mortality forecasting can also lay the foundation of pricing longevity risk bonds.Based on Lee-Carter model, this paper considers mortality correlations and the long-run equilibrium of mortality rates between China mainland and Taiwan province for mortality forecasting, and proposes a VECM model which differs from the traditional ARIMA model that only uses the limited information of mortality data.The method of the minimum mean square prediction errors (MSPE) is used for criteria.our results show that the forecasting based on the VECM model are better than traditional Lee-Carter model.Mortality rates between China mainland and Taiwan province can also provide important reference for pricing a multi-region longevity bonds.

关键词： Mortality forecasting Lee-Carter model long-run equilibrium Mortality correlation VECM model

作者: LIU Xiangdong FAN Yangyang

作者单位: College of economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou,China,510632

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 7th International Institute of Statistics & Management Engineering Symposium(IISMES2015) (第七届国际统计与管理工程学术研讨会)

会议地点: 山东 日照

会议语种:英文

页码: 87-95

在线出版日期: 2015-08-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）