The Influential Factors and Energy saving Policies of Urban Household Total Energy Consumption in Chinas Urbanization Process
For a long time, China has been focusing on the energy conservation and emission reduction in the industrial area, while the research on household energy consumption is insufficient in-depth.Therefore, the research object of this paper is household energy consumption, and we calculate and analyse the change rules of direct, indirect and total household energy consumption.In view of the characteristics reflected in Chinas current urbanization stage, this paper also makes some amendments of Kaya identity by introducing the aspect of urbanization to further study the factors affecting household energy consumption.The long-term equilibrium relationship between household energy consumption and explanatory variables is studied by the method of co-integration.Employing Monte Carlo simulation, we present dynamic explanation and forecast for the development trend of Chinas household energy consumption under the premise that each explanatory variable obeys probability distribution.These results suggest that in order to control the increase in energy consumption and to achieve energy-saving transformation in the course of urbanization, China should change residents consuming habits, properly control the speed of urbanization, improve energy efficiency, guide people towards rational consumption expenditure, and adopt other measures which will have long-term effect on Chinas energy conservation and consumption reduction.
Total energy consumption Monte Carlo Co-integration model Urbanization
SUN Han WANG Hongjian PENG lisi LI Lin
School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences 430074 Wuhan Digital Business Management Research Center,China University of Geosciences 430074 Wuhan
国际会议
山东 日照
英文
167-178
2015-08-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）