Exploratory of Spatial Epidemic Trends for Tuberculosis Incidence in Beijing, China, 2005-2011
Background: According to The World Health Organization (WHO), approximately 8.7 million new cases worldwide were reported in the year 2011.The tuberculosis (TB) mortality rate fell 41% between 1990 and 2011 and the world is on track to achieve the global target of a 50% reduction by 2015.Since TB remains a significant cause of illness and still affects large population groups, the detection of spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis could be of great interest for public health authorities.Method: An exploratory space-time analyses study was undertaken using tuberculosis data for the period 1st January, 2005 to 31th December, 2011 which obtained from Beijing Research Institute for Tuberculosis Control.These data were processed and then converted into GIS format.Pearsons Chi-square tests were used in descriptive statistical analyses to explore whether differences exist in gender, age, hukou, season and occupation with SAS9.2.To assess the spatial distribution of TB cases, Global Morans I and Anselin Local Morans 1 Analysis were applied together with Getis-Ord General G and Getis-Ord Gi* with the ESRI ArcGIS DESKTOP 10.0 programme.Kriging method was applied for the spatial inference of quantities in unobserved locations.Results: A total of 23022 TB cases were registered for the period from 2005 to 201 l.The annual incidence of reported cases were 30.4, 33.1, 34.4, 36.1, 35.6,26.4 and 24.5 cases/100000 population respectively from 2005 to 2011.The spatial distribution of TB was nonrandom and clustered with the significant Morans I for each year.Conclusions: In summary, statistically significant spatial clusters of TB cases were detected at the town level.It is suggested that future studies should focus on these high risk regions to investigate the reason of occurrences and inventions should be targeted and timed according to the hotspot areas.
Lei Pan Xiaoxin He Chao Wang Yanxia Luo Huiping Zhu Qi Gao Xiuhua Guo
School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China Beijing Research Institute for Tuberculosis Control, Beijing, China
国际会议
北京
英文
65-73
2013-06-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）