Risk Factors for CVD Mortality among the Elderly in Beijing, 1992-2009: A Competing Risks Analysis
Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death and morbidity worldwide.The purpose of this study is to determine the risk factors of CVD mortality among the elderly, specifically in Beijing, China through data mining to a 17-year cohort study of the Beijing Longitudinal Study of Aging (BLSA).We effectively addressed the effects of simultaneous multiple risks factors of CVD among the BLSA participants.Methodology This study uses competing risks survival analysis to evaluate the association of lifestyle and dietary factors with the CVD mortality among the 2010 participants.From 1992 to 2009, 225 of the 954 recorded deaths were caused by cardiovascular disease.Covariance focused mainly on lifestyle and dietary factors, which includes age, gender, weight, height, physical disability, mental health,body mass index, and so on.Results In the final model, after all of the adjustments, female individuals are less at risk of death from CVD than male individuals (HR=0.580,95%CI=0.371-0.907).The risk of CVD mortality increases sharply with age, and individual with hypertensive markedly increased the risk of CVD death (HR =1.497, 95%CI=1.051-2.134).The CVD mortality of residents in towns was significantly lower than that of residents of mountain villages (HR=0.642, 95%CI=0.425-0.970).Furthermore, frequent consumption of meat increases the risk of death from CVD (HR=1.578, 95%CI =1.083-2.299).Conclusion In summary, this study shows that males are more at risk of having CVD than females.In addition, the increasing age, high blood pressure, countryside living, and frequent consumption of meat are associated with higher CVD mortality of the elderly in Beijing, China.We likewise developed a competing risk model for the specific cause of CVD mortality.In the future, this new model could be used to identify individuals with a higher risk of CVD mortality.
Cardiovascular disease competing risk model Fine and Grays test risk factors
Tao Zhou Xiuhua Guo
School of Public Health,Capital Medical University, Beijing, China;Beijing Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology,Beijing, China
国际会议
北京
英文
197-211
2013-06-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）