Time series analysis of Chinas service trade based on ARIMA model

摘要：

　　Since the international trade and global development environment tend to be severe,all of the countries are looking for new economic growth points.Therefore,service trade is widely concerned.Now the opportunities and challenges of trade in services coexist.To study the development of Chinas service trade,the ARIMA model was used to analyze the time series data of Chinas service trade volume from 1982 to 2015.R was used to build the model.From the model checking,ARIMA(2,3,2) was selected.With the predict of ARIMA(2,3,2),the projected value for 2016 is $ 749.9989 billion,so that Chinas trade in services will be stable development.Some policy recommendations were also made to improve Chinas service trade.

关键词： service trade ARIMA model trade forecast

作者: Wang Pengliang

作者单位: South China University of Technology,Panyu District,Guangzhou,Guangdong

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: ICEFS2017(International Conference on Economics, Finance and Statistics 2017) (2017经济、金融与统计国际会议)

会议地点: 香港

会议语种:英文

页码: 382-386

在线出版日期: 2017-01-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）