S-CURVE ANALYSIS ON MASS PRODUCTION TIMING USING TRIZ
As current technology becomes more competitive and complicated,it is important to forecast not only each stage of a technical product,but also the likely moment when a competing product may begin mass production.If you forecast the exact mass production timing in your industry,you can dominate its market in advance by completing your R&D activities quickly and by starting mass production earlier than your competitors.This paper develops the Two-Peak Curve Model from the second stage of S-curve development to predict mass production of a technical product two years after the second peak point of the number of patents.The model is supported by several examples,including a crosspoint memory semiconductor product,a FinFET logic semiconductor product,and a virtual reality headset product.
S-curve analysis Two-Peak curve model Mass production timing
Sang-Jong Kim
Samsung Electronics, Hwasung-si, 446-711, South Korea
国际会议
北京
英文
253-258
2016-07-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）