Characterizing Uncertainty of Hydro-climatic Variables for Water Management in the Yellow River Basin: Learning from the Past

摘要：

　　Unpredictable variability such as caused by climate change,and imperfect knowledge of hydrological processes introduce uncertainty in water resources planning and management.As a result,analysing and studying the variability and uncertainty of hydro-climatic variables help to better understand the variations of these processes and provide information to water planning and management.The paper focuses on characterizing the variability and uncertainty of climatic and hydrological variables such as temperature,precipitation,and runoff in the Yellow River Basin.Historical information and data is used to analyse the trend of these variables,and the variability and uncertainty of these hydro-climatic processes.Two statistical approaches,including the bootstrap method and the maximum likelihood (MLE) method,are used to estimate uncertainties given historical data.We apply the analysis to both seasonal and annual data,and to various sub-regions of the Yellow River Basin.

关键词： uncertainty bootstrap method maximum likelihood method Yellow River Basin water management

作者: Congli Dong Gerrit Schoups Nick van de Giesen

作者单位: Section of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineer and Geosciences,Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 5th International Yellow River Forum (第五届黄河国际论坛)

会议地点: 郑州

会议语种:英文

页码: 45-49

在线出版日期: 2012-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）