PMP/PMF Estimation over Consideration of Global Warming
Under the precondition of agreement to (1) global wanning,(2) climate warruing of the design region,(3) the climate wanning of the design region during the flood periods and (4) the surface dew point (Td) increases during the efficiency storm occurs in tlood periods,methods to obtain PMP/PMF over consideration of global warming were exploited in this paper.The 4 hypothesizes mentioned above should be considered together,otherwise any methods will be meaningless.The main framework of calculating PMP/PMF is as High-Efficiency storm→ Moisture maximization→Transposition→Enveloping→PMP→Runoff generation and confluence calculation→PMF.The major influences of climate wanning on PMP/PMF estimating lie in Moisture maximization and Runoff generation and confluence calculation respectively.Considering the design attributes and prediction attributes of PMP/PMF,methods to obtain PMP/PMFs should be recapitulative.The method to estimate PMP/PMFs of design watersheds over consideration of global warming was presented,only considering the influence of the air temperature increased on the moisture maximization ratio.In details,the PMP moisture maximization ratio was calculated using the similar method to obtain the precipitable water from surface dew point.However,considering that the dew point of high efficiency storm will increase due to climate warming,and the relationship of the dew point and the precipitable water lies in that while the dew point increases by 1 ℃,the precipitable water increases by about 10%,and accordingly the PMP increases by about 10%.Subsequently,the PMF increases by about 10%,ignoring the influence of climate wanning on the Runoff generation and confluence for the project safety.Results can be obtained using the same method under other conditions.
global warming extreme hydro-meteorological events storm transposition probable maximum precipitation (PMP) probable maximum flood (PMF)
Wang Guoan Li Chaoqun Wang Chunqing
Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou, 450003, China Hydrology Bureau of Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Zhengzhou, 450004, China
国际会议
The 5th International Yellow River Forum (第五届黄河国际论坛)
郑州
英文
65-69
2012-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）