Sensitivity Study of Hydrological Process in Source Area of the Yellow River
The sensitivity test has been done by improved and rated SWAT model in order to analyzing the affection of climate change and land use/land cover change to runoff.The results of sensitivity test show that,climate change is the dominant factor in affecting runoff change of the source regions of the Yellow River.The impact of climate change on runoff change accounts for 70%,and land use/land cover change is about 30%.25 different combinations of water and heat have been designed according to the temperature and precipitation fluctuations of the source regions of the Yellow River in recent 40 years.All the combinations of water and heat was to be sued to explore the impact of climate factors change on runoff.The combinations of water and heat were designed by two principles,one is precipitation in five hypotheses (constant,add/subtract 10% and add/ subtract 20%) while temperatures in constant,the other is temperatures in five hypotheses (constant ascending/descending 1 ℃,ascending/ descending 2 ℃) while precipitation in constant.The simulation results show that the impact of precipitation on runoff of the source regions of the Yellow River is more obvious than temperatures,that is to say precipitation is the main factor to runoff change.It is the worst things to the water resources of source area of the Yellow River if the temperature ascending 2 ℃ and precipitation decreased 20% in the future.The runoff from source area of the Yellow River will be reduced by 31.19% in that case.
runoff land use/land cover change climate change sensitivity test source area of the Yellow River
Wang Jinhua Liu Jifeng Zhang Ronggang
Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou, 450003, China Hydrology Bureau, Yellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou, 450004, China
国际会议
The 5th International Yellow River Forum (第五届黄河国际论坛)
郑州
英文
80-84
2012-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）