The Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in the Upper Yellow River Basin in the 21 st Century
(0) Climate change would lead to a significant impact on hydrological cycle and water resources system.The water resources in the Upper Yellow River Basin (UYRB)in the 21st century was assessed by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and PRECIS under three scenarios.With the VIC model being calibrated in four sub-catchments of the UYRB,the model parameters in other regions were estimated by spatial proximity and physical similarity.As a result,the hydrological regime could be simulated for the whole UYRB,and that was used to investigate the relative change of water resources in future scenarios (2010 ~2099) compared to it in baseline period (1961 ~1990),using the output from PRECIS.The results indicated that: 1) There might be a sustaining decreasing trend for water resources in the 21st century under the three scenarios in UYRB,with a lowest decreasing trend in 2020s,followed by 2050s,and then2080s.2) The highest decreasing trend was under A2 scenario for every period.In2020s and 2080s,the lowest decreasing trend was under B2 scenario,but A1B scenario had the lowest decreasing trend in 2050s.3) There would be a high variability of the decreasing trend for water resources in different grids,and the decreasing trend in west part was higher than that in east part of UYRB.The decrease of future water resources might lead to more serious water shortage and related economic and environmental problems in the Yellow River basin during the 21st century.
water resources climate change Upper Yellow River impact
Bao Zhen xin Wang Guoqing Yan Xiaolin Song Xuan Zhang Aijing Shang Manting
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Resea Nanjing Water Planning and Designing Institute, Ltd., Nanjing, 210006, China Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, 116024, China
国际会议
The 5th International Yellow River Forum (第五届黄河国际论坛)
郑州
英文
151-157
2012-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）