Predicting the Typical Year of Precipitation Based on the Fuzzy Pattern Recognition and R/S Analysis Model

摘要：

　　The hydrological system is randomness and fuzziness.Integrating many methods to reform the prediction model will improve the accuracy of the typical year.Uncertain with the R/S analysis whose characteristics is long-term correlation and statistical self-similarity,the fuzzy pattern recognition and R/S analysis model is the time series predicting model by coupling fuzzy pattern recognition.It avoids the arbitrariness and subjectivity by artificially dividing the known data,and mines the more abundant information in the time series than the traditional predicting method of certainty and randomness,and can be applied in the detection of the long-term memory effect and the non-gauss process with peak and thick tail.The result shows that the model is convenient and current,with the high prediction precision and popularization using value.

关键词： fuzzy pattern recognition R/S analysis model coupling typical year predict

作者: Huang Xin Qiu Lin

作者单位: Institute of Environmental and Municipal Engineering, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou, 450011, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 5th International Yellow River Forum (第五届黄河国际论坛)

会议地点: 郑州

会议语种:英文

页码: 462-465

在线出版日期: 2012-09-24（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）