Reliability Growth Prediction for Low-voltage Switchgear Based on Conditional Distribution
Conditional distribution method was applied to the prediction of next failure time during reliability growth testing of low-voltage switchgear.All kinds of failure times and fault numbers were recorded in the case of failure-truncated or time-truncated.If these failures were corrected immediately, marginal conditional probability density function of the future failure time could be established through obtaining joint probability density function of the failure time and joint conditional probability density function of the future failure time.And then predictor and prediction intervals of the future failure time were given.Also, formulas to calculate the next three failure times and their prediction accuracy were given.Finally, this method was carried out, focusing on the type of low-voltage switchgear.The analysis of test data shows the method is feasible and effective.And compared with the results of prediction, it indicates that conditional distribution method can get more accurate results.
Conditional distribution reliability growth low-voltage switchgear prediction accuracy
Li Wang Wei Zhao Jingqin Wang Haoxuan Xia Dongjuan Ma
Province-Ministry Joint Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Field and Electrical Apparatus Reliability College of information science and engineering, Northeastern University, Shenyang 110004, China
国际会议
温州
英文
274-279
2014-11-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）