A Rapid Assessment Method on Operational Reliability of Power Grid
Appropriate reliability model is the basis of reliability analysis.In view of the defects in power grid reliability analysis that discrete Markov chain model simulation stays longer in the same state often, from the viewpoint of operation and based on continuous time Markov chain and under the premise that equipment failure rate complies with exponential distribution characteristics, a model, by which fast analytical analysis on power system operation reliability can be carried out, is proposed.The core of the proposed model lies in following aspects: firstly, based on historical operation data of power system, a corresponding Qmatrix of the continuous time Markov chain equivalent to power system operation is attained;secondly, according to the current power system operating condition and utilizing the concept of stopping time of Q-process, such reliability indices for some time to come as steady state probability and mean time to first failure of power system can be rapidly analyzed.So the rapid assessment of power grid operation reliability can be implemented.A numerical example is computed by using the proposed method.
continuous time Markov chain power grid reliability assessment mean time to first failure
Shaohua Jin Jianguo Lu Yanping Wan Shuguang Sun Jinping Liu
Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, 300401
国际会议
温州
英文
309-311
2014-11-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）