Analysis of False Alarm and Missing Alarm in Conjunction Assessment of Space Objects
The risks of collision between space objects are becoming more serious than ever.In order to ensure on-orbit safety, collision probability (Pc), which provides a quantitative measure of likelihood between space objects, is widely used to evaluate the risk of collision.But the conjunction assessment of space objects is substantially a discriminant analysis problem, and there is always a question about the reliability of Pc.In this paper, the probabilities of missing alarm and false alarm are studied based on the explicit expressions of Pc, the safety-region and danger-region of conjunction assessment are defined, and the definition, formula, and basic property of probabilities of missing alarm and false alarm are provided.This paper provides an idea for the reliability calculation of Pc, which is useful for us to directly know the reliability of Pc, balance the cost of taking action to maneuver the spacecraft or not, and make the final decision.
Space objects Conjunction assessment Collision probability Missing alarm probability False alarm probability
Chaowei Ma Xianzong Bai
School of Information and Electronics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081,China;Beijing College of Aerospace Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology,Changsha 410
国际会议
The 27th Conference of Spacecraft TT&C Technology in China(第27届中国飞行器测控学术会议)
广州
英文
477-487
2014-11-09（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）