FORECASTING ON TREND OF CHINAS STEEL DEMAND BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS
The construction of infrastructure and civil housing in city are both steel costing projects, which means that the urbanization process would probably work in concert with the growth of steel demand.To verify this assumption, this study picked urbanization rate as the main influential factor to establish a system dynamics model in Vensim PLE platform to forecast the peak of steel demand under different scenarios which were defined by different immigration rate.The results indicated that accompanied with 70%~75% of urbanization ratio, 10 million tons per year would be the top level of national steel demand.This level was the same as the developed countries when their peak arrived.With incentives, the peak might get an earlier appearance, but the peak value showed no considerable change.
Forecasting Urbanization Steel Demand System Dynamics BP Network
Qun Zhang Rui Hu Lirong Wei
Dongling School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, 100083
国际会议
The 12th International Conference on Industrial Management(第十二届工业管理国际会议)
成都
英文
390-395
2014-09-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）