ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT FACTORS OF THE CARBON EMISSIONS FUTURES PRICES BASED ON THE CARBON FOOTPRINT
This article collects the EUA futures prices trading under the second phase of EU ETS as the object, and concludes by modelling the Markov regime-switching VAR: 1) the prices fluctuate over regimes defined as recession and recovery along with the macroeconomic crash such as financial and debt crisis and mostly remain in the same state continuously;2) the EU27 Production in Industry which gathers the sectors under EU ETS can confirm the lag influence on EUA prices regime switching;3) the yearly carbon footprint index calculated based on the Input-output Analysis can change smoothed transition probabilities of each regime where reflects the lag impact again and can ease the extreme value of them.The forecast method for carbon footprint based on the independent industrial interrelationship inspires us to further focus on policy making about the transformations of energy-intensive technologies and the structures within and among industries.With the help of hedging the EUA futures, Chinas energy-intensive enterprises can mitigate the cost in reducing emissions.
EUA Futures Prices Carbon Footprint Markov Regime-switching VAR Input-output Analysis
Mengchao Qi Liyan Han
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China
国际会议
The 12th International Conference on Industrial Management(第十二届工业管理国际会议)
成都
英文
455-461
2014-09-03（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）