Using cross-impact analysis as a part of scenario technique for long-term trends of energy systems
A cross-impact analysis is a very often used tool of the scenario technique within a framework of system analysis.The goal of this particular analysis is a deduction of plausible long-term trends about interrelated economic,technological,social and political occurrences based on expert judgments.Therefore different system variables for each economic,technological,social and political trend are defined and their interdependence among each other is in pairs estimated.Probably the most critical aspect is that the expertise about economic,technological,social,and political system variables and their interdependence is often restricted to qualitative insights and implicit mental models.On the other hand,these system variables exclude the possibility of intuitive systemic understanding and needs a consistent mathematical procedure.To understand more about this methodology a specific approach the cross-impact balance analysis developed by the University of Stuttgart is carried out in a case of the electricity,heat,and mobility system temporally from the current state to future trends(nearly 2050)for selected regions.The selection of regions has taken into consideration that great regional differences exist,e.g.,between urban and rural areas with respect to a)prospective changes in electricity supply,heat supply,and mobility supply and to b)the long-term targets of the energy concept of the German government requiring an expansion of renewable energies to which different regions may contribute in very different ways.These differences are also related to population,economic structure,the established structure of the energy supply systems,as well as to mobility patterns and use.As a result it is shown that the cross-impact balance analysis is applicable for the use of a consistent scenario technique due to its transparent analytical procedure.Furthermore the assets and drawbacks of the cross-impact balance analysis of regional energy systems are discussed.
regional energy systems cross-impact balance analysis cross-impact matrix long-term scenario technique
Jens Buchgeister Andreas Rieder Wolfgang Weimar-Jehle
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology,Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis,Karlsruhe University of Stuttgart,Center of Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies,Stuttgart,Germany
国际会议
桂林
英文
1-11
2013-07-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）