The Cusp Catastrophe Model of Major Accidents Based on Ideas of Black Swan and Its Application in Port Road Projects

摘要：

　　The normal accident prediction models can’t predict the occurrence of major accidents very well,so the cusp catastrophe model of major accidents is set up on the base of ideas of black swan and catastrophe theory.In the model,the main factors of major accidents are regarded as the controls parameters and the functional status of the system as the state parameter.The model has filled up the blank field of studying emergency in the black area.It is well explained by the model that the project state depends on the interaction between human factors and material factors.In the further step,the mechanism of major accidents can be generalized.The model is applied in the case of port engineering.To avoid major accidents,the corresponding measures would be taken according to different states of the port engineering.Through the application,the model is proved to be useful in the engineering practice.

关键词： black swan catastrophe theory major accidents cusp catastrophe model

作者: Yanfeng Bai Ling Zhang Xuejun Wen

作者单位: Shanghai Municipal Engineering Design General Institute(Group)Co.Ltd,Shanghai,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2015 Information Technology and Mechatronics Engineering Conference (ITOEC 2015)(2015信息技术与机电一体化国际会议)

会议地点: 重庆

会议语种:英文

页码: 201-206

在线出版日期: 2015-03-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）