Stochastic Forecasting of Lumpy-distributed Aircraft Spare Parts Demand

摘要：

　　An approach is proposed to forecast lumpy spare parts demand associated with non-routine aircraft maintenance based on a stochastic model.The model assumes demand arrival in the form of a Homogeneous Poisson Process (HPP).The developed model is applied to a dataset from an aircraft maintenance operator consisting of lumpy spare parts demand for nine Line Replacable Units (LRUs) from a shared customer pool of parts,which are associated with significant repair turnaround time delays.To meet the operator’s service level requirements and associated stocking strategy,the model is evaluated for its capacity to forecast peak demand,rather than its capacity to minimize forecasting error.Under these terms,the proposed model outperforms the existing company approach.

关键词： Forecasting Spare Parts Demand Homogeneous Poisson Process

作者: Wim J.C.VERHAGEN Richard CURRAN

作者单位: Delft University of Technology, Kluyverweg 1, Delft, The Netherlands, 2629 HS

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 21st ISPE International Conference on Concurrent Engineering (2014国际并行工程学术会议)

会议地点: 北京

会议语种:英文

页码: 706-715

在线出版日期: 2014-09-08（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）