On the Characteristics of the Predicted Wind Power Based on Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution
The credibility of predicted wind power is an important reference for power system operators.In this paper,three-parameter Weibull probability distribution is modeled to discover the characteristics of the actual wind power,i.e.,the information behind the predicted wind power.First.methodology to determine the field wind power set corresponding to different wind power prediction level is developed.Then,the parameter identification for the three-parameter Weibull distributions is formulated as an optimal problem with the objective of minimum absolute error,considering the characteristics of field data in each prediction level.Furthermore.the sequential quadratics programming method is used to obtain the parameters.Finally,the proposed method is applied to the field data of typical wind farms in Inner Mongolia.The results show that the proposed method is more accurate than the traditional versatile distribution,normal distribution and two-parameter Weibull distribution.
Wind power prediction cumulative distribution function three-parameter Weibull distribution
LI Zhi-juan XUE An-cheng BI Tian-shu
State key laboratory for Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China
国际会议
The 33th Chinese Control Conference第33届中国控制会议
南京
英文
7077-7081
2014-07-28（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）