Study on Variable-weight Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model of Dam Slope
Deformation of slope and landslide are quite complex, which is affected by many factors including internal geological condition and external environment variation.Landslide forecasting is the main method to ensure lowering the influence of danage and reducing the economical lost.Based on the in-situ monitoring data, variable-weight exponential smoothing method is used to forecast the stability of landslide.In terms of deformation value of landslide, acquired data which contain rich information about slope are fully utilized, dynamic tracking forecasting of landslide could be achieved.Depending on the in-situ condition on dam slope of Longjiang hydropower station, monitoring data are analyzed to model and forecast the deformation of the slope, results show that developing trend of slope can be approximately reflected, but it still has considerable error.However, the merits of different indexes could be considered when variable-weight exponential smoothing forecasting model is applied.This model has higher accuracy and can be suitable to predict the deformation and early-warning of landslide.
dam slope variable-weight exponential smoothing method forecasting model Longjiang hyropower station
Li Zheng Li Hongen He Yongjun Xu Haifeng
Dam Safety Management Department, Nanjing Hyraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029
国际会议
昆明
英文
863-870
2013-11-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）