Analysis and Prediction for Chrysalis Silk Price Index Based on the Improved GM(1,1)Model and the Grey-Markov Model

摘要：

　　This paper is using the cocoon filament prices index from the website named the east-sericulture-shift-to-west engineering information system as the research background, seeking for the quantitative analysis and forecast of the cocoon filament price index and making forecast and evaluation for market operation.This paper respectively establishes the improved GM(1,1) model and Grey-Markov model and compares the prediction results of the two models.When using the Grey-Markov model, the data prediction accuracy is higher and it can reflect the volatility of the data.

关键词： the cocoon filament prices index the improved GM(1,1)model the Grey-Markov model

作者: Tao Qiu Meijun Chen Hong Fang Cen Feng

作者单位: National Engineering Laboratory for Modern Silk,Soochow University,Suzhou,215123,China;College of Textile and Clothing Engineering,Soochow University,Jiangsu,215021,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 8th China International Silk Conference (ISC2013)、The 4th Asian Protective Clothing Conference(APCC2013)and Eco-Friendly Textile Dyeing and Finishing Conference( 第八届中国国际丝绸会议、第四届亚洲防护服会议暨环保纺织染整会议)

会议地点: 苏州

会议语种:英文

页码: 259-263

在线出版日期: 2013-09-09（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）