Decomposition analysis of changes in virtual water export in Yellow River Basin in China
Yellow River is the second longest river in China. Yellow River Basin (YRB) is experiencing increasing water challenge alongside its astonishing economic growth and population explosion in the past years. An increase in virtual water export (VWE) could exacerbate the shortage of water resources in a water-stressed area. An analysis of the VWE changes between years is important for the management on trade strategies and water resources for YRB. However, there is few researches focus on this issue. In response to this problem, this study conducts a quasidynamic input-output (IO) analysis to investigate changes in VWE in YRB and decompose the effects of contributing factors to the changes during 2002-2007 by structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model. The IO analysis reveals that YRB‘s VWE increase from 6.92×109 m3 in 2002 to 1.27×1010 m3 in 2007. Agriculture; electricity, heat and hot water; and wholesale, retail trade, accommodation and catering are the sectors making the dominant contributions to the increase of total VWE. The decomposition analysis shows that the technological effect and structural effect reduce the VWE by -7.81×109 m3 and -2.15×109 m3 respectively, whereas the export scale effect lead to increase in the VWE of 1.57×1010 m3. The study provides insights to the water security in YRB and proposes possible strategies for the future water management, including keep developing the technologies, adjusting the industrial structure and controlling the growth of export scale, which is also an effort to help the policy making on the virtual water strategies.
Virtual water export water resource decomposition analysis input-output analysis Yellow River Basin
Y.Zhi X.A.Yin Z.F.Yang
State Key Laboratory of Water Environmental Simulation, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University. No 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing, China, 100875
国际会议
The 3rd Biennial ISRS Symposium Achieving Healthy and Viable Rivers (ISRS)第3届国际河流大会
北京
英文
118-126
2013-08-05(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)