Climate-induced flow regime alterations and its implications for river ecosystems in Lancang River, China
Flow regimes provide insight into the health of river ecosystems. Thus, the understanding of how climate changes might affect regional flow regimes is vital for river ecosystem protection in the future. This study aims to investigate the possible future flow regimes alterations and associated implications for river ecosystems in Lancang River, China. The statistical relationships between large-scale circulation factors and climate factors in Lancang River are established by using multiple linear regression method. Then, the regression equations are applied to downscale the future data of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3). Finally, the streamflows of future 90 years are predicted through back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN). The potential effects of flow regimes alterations on river ecosystems are tested by amended annual proportional flow deviation (AAPFD). Results of our study indicate that the streamflows will experience dramatically change under the effect of future climate scenarios. In addition, these climate-induced flow regimes alterations will result in severe effect on river ecosystems, especially in the upstream and downstream of Lancang River. The results of this study can provide valuable information for future sustainable river ecosystems protection in Lancang River, especially under the context of projected climate change and increased flow regulation arising from hydropower development. Further research should focus on exploring the ecologically sound dam operation schedule to maintain the flow regimes required to sustain healthy river.
Climate change Flow regimes Statistical downscaling Amended annual proportional flow deviation Lancang River
Jian Tang Xinan Yin Pan Yang Zhifeng Yang
state Key Laboratory of Water Environmental Simulation, School of Environment,Beijing Normal University. No 19 Xinjiekouwai Street, Beijing, China, 100875
国际会议
The 3rd Biennial ISRS Symposium Achieving Healthy and Viable Rivers (ISRS)第3届国际河流大会
北京
英文
155-167
2013-08-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）