Evaluation of Wind Turbine Probabilistic Extreme Response:Controlled Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Extrapolation

摘要：

　　This study presents a controlled Monte Carlo simulation framework with importance splitting (ISp) method for estimating long-terms wind turbine extreme responses with small exceeding probabilities.The ISp method, also referred to as subset simulation with splitting, permits the estimation of a small probability of a rare event through estimations of conditional probabilities of intermediate subset events.Multivariate autore gressive (MAR) modeling of stochastic excitations facilitates generations of offsprings of loading and response time histories conditional on the intermediate events.This study also reexamines the translation process ap proach, and reveals the challenges of moments-based Hermite polynomial function for estimating extreme val ue distribution of non-Gaussian turbine response.An improved modeling of translation function that better re presents its behavior at upper tail is proposed, and its improved performance is confirmed.

作者: Xinzhong Chen Jie Ding Kuangmin Gong

作者单位: National Wind Institute, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 5th International Symposium on Innovation & Sustainability of Structures in Civil Engineering (ISISS2013)(第五届创新和可持续发展土木工程结构国际学术研讨会)

会议地点: 哈尔滨

会议语种:英文

页码: 58-70

在线出版日期: 2013-07-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）