Future climate change projection of northwestern Pacific marginal seas by dynamical downscaling of the GCMs
This study introduces the future climate change projection in the Northwestern Pacific marginal seas by dynamical downscaling GCMs.To study the detailed features of future climate change,Northwest Pacific model with horizontal grid spacing of 0.1° was set up.We used the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) together with the SRES A1B simulation for the period 2001–2100 with the Miroc-3.2(hire),Ukmo-hadgem1 and MPI-echam5 climate model for the northwestern Pacific.We calculated warming trend and signals from the GCMs future projections using cyclostationary Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (CSEOF).CSEOF decomposes space-time data into cyclo-stationary loading vectors.The warming trend and signals from 2001 to 2100 are added to the present surface forcing and open boundary data for the regional climate projection.Although the projection from the NWPS is generally in agreement with that of GCMs,the former results in substantial regional details,transports,and improving the mean seasonal temperature.Downscaling regional model shows relatively rapid temperature increments in the Bohai Sea and northern EJS,and slow increment of temperature along the Kuroshio path.Volume transport and heat transport through the Korea Strait are likely to increase under the global warming condition.
climate change projection Northwest Pacific Marginal Seas ROMS
Gwang-Ho Seo Yang-Ki Cho Byoung-Ju Choi Kwang-Yul Kim Bong-guk Kim
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Kunsan National University, Gunsan, Korea
国际会议
The 17th Pacific -Asian Marginal Seas Meeting(第十七届太平洋与亚洲边缘海国际会议)
杭州
英文
639-648
2013-04-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）