The effect of non-breaking wave mixing on the track simulation of typhoon
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is configured for the region of (15°–41°N,105°–135°E),which covers the same area with the MASNUM (Key Lab.Marine Science &Numerical Modeling,State Oceanic Administration) wave-tide-circulation coupled operational forecast system.Three numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the effects of the real-time forecasted sea surface temperature (SST) and the non-breaking wave-induced vertical mixing (Bv) on the track forecast of all 33 tropical cyclones in the model domain area during 2008 and 2011.The first experiment employs NCEP FNL (NCEP final analysis) SST as WRF’s bottom condition as the Control run,which is also the default setup of WRF.The second and third experiments use real-time forecasted SST from the MASNUM forecast system with and without Bv,respectively.The forecasted track results are compared with Japan Meteorological Agency’s best track data.For 24 h forecast,the averaged tropical cyclone position error of Experiment with Bv is reduced by 9% compared to the Control experiment,while the forecasted track error of Experiment without Bv is reduced only 2% compared to the Control experiment.For the 48 h forecast,the averaged track errors are reduced 10% and 6% with Bv and without Bv compared to the Control experiment,respectively.These results suggest that the real-time forecasted SST can improve the performance of WRF in forecasting tropical cyclone track,and the Bv plays an important role in reducing the forecast error of tropical cyclone track.Comparatively,Bv canimprove more on the track of stronger TC.
non-breaking wave mixing typhoon real forecast sst
Guansuo Wang Biao Zhao Fangli Qiao
First Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, Qingdao, China, 266061 National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China, 10081
国际会议
The 17th Pacific -Asian Marginal Seas Meeting(第十七届太平洋与亚洲边缘海国际会议)
杭州
英文
746-751
2013-04-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）