Urban building energy consumption forecast based on the IPAT theory

摘要：

　　This paper established an urban building energy consumption model based on IPAT theory combined with ARMA method.Applying the model, the paper calculated the urban building energy consumption in different scenarios, and then predicted the amount of urban building energy consumption in China during 2011-2015.The amount of Chinese urban building energy consumption would grow rapidly during this period, and would reach about 895 million tons of standard coal in 2015.Results analysis showed that it would be necessary to promote energy-efficiency measures in urban buildings, especially in the public buildings.

关键词： Building energy consumption Energy efficiency IPAT theory Urban

作者: Zou Cui Liu Xiuli

作者单位: Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;Regional

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第二届绿色建筑技术与材料国际会议(2th International Conference on Green Buildings Technologies and Materials)(BGTM2012)

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 482-486

在线出版日期: 2012-12-27（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）