Research on the Risk Index of Chinas Macroeconomic Operation
The overall risk of economic performance of China was evaluated through the establishment of risk index of economic operations in this paper.The results show that Chinas overall risk status is running a risk concern level in 2010 and 2011.Excessive bank credit and the value shrink of huge foreign exchange reserves will be the main risk factor in 2010, however, in addition to these factors, asset bubbles and rising inflation pressures will be the other factors in 2011.To promote the economic development in the next two years, China should gradually withdraw from loose monetary policy and take appropriate fiscal policy to eliminate the side effects of policies response to the crisis.And other measures such as interest rate adjustment and inflation expectations leading should be taken to prevent the breeding of asset price bubbles and increasing of inflation risk.
economic operation risk index monetary policy risk management
Jia Dekui
Risk Management Research Institute, Shanghai Lixin University of Commerce
国际会议
The 4th Conference on Chinas Economic Operation Risk Management(2010·Shanghai)(第四届中国立信风险管理论坛)
上海
英文
77-82
2010-10-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）