Analysis of the Energy Consumption and Economy Growth Volatility Based on H-P Filtration
The relationship between the energy consumption (EC) and economic growth of China during the period of 1981 to 2008 was studied with the application of co-integration theory.The results show that a stationary positive relationship between the total energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) exists, and the main reason of the rising energy consumption is the continuous growing of GDP.The decomposition of H-P filtration was conducted on the energy consumption and GDP separately based on above analysis.The characteristic of common trends and volatilities between the energy consumption and economic growth was then obtained.From the view of trend components, a long-term equilibrium relation between the two sides was clearly proved, which explains that the growth of Chinas energy consumption is inevitable in a considerable period.However, it was found that in a long-term, the growth of GDP doesnt necessarily depend on the large inputs of energy.The economy cycle will profoundly affect the energy cycle components, and the both sides will be linked more closely in the future.Therefore, the transitions of economy development model need to be accelerated and the measures of energy-saving and cost reducing need to be developed.
energy consumption economy growth co-integration H-P filtration
Wei Hua Tang Haiyan He Yaqun Wu Shan
China University of Mining and Technology China Lixin Risk Management Research Institute
国际会议
The 4th Conference on Chinas Economic Operation Risk Management(2010·Shanghai)(第四届中国立信风险管理论坛)
上海
英文
193-198
2010-10-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）