Measuring Chinese Inflation Pressure after Monetary Expansion of 2009

摘要：

　　This paper discusses long-term and short-term CPI respectively.We propose an AR-LD-ARCH model of Chinese long-term inflation, and use band-pass filter to estimate output gaps and model Chinese short-term inflation.We find that ARCH method is an appropriate tool to describe data process of long-term inflation, and the inflation effect of monetary policy is time lagged, that implies monetary expansion in 2009 will cause a rise in long-term inflation pressure during the period from June 2010 to the first half of 2011.

关键词： inflation pressure monetary expansion ARCH

作者: Zhang Geng

作者单位: Institute of International Finance & Commerce, Shanghai International Study University

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 4th Conference on Chinas Economic Operation Risk Management(2010·Shanghai)(第四届中国立信风险管理论坛)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 242-251

在线出版日期: 2010-10-14（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）