A Spatial Load density forecasting Method Based on Cloud Theory and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

摘要：

　　Spatial load density forecasting is the basis of distribution network planning.In view of the features of spatial power load density forecasting and the uncertainty of humans judgment,this paper presents a spatial load forecasting method based on cloud theory and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to improve the forecast inaccuracy.Cloud generators and inference rules were established to quantize the qualitative factors and obtain the objective weights of the influencing factors.Triangular fuzzy number is introduced to the model for indicating the judgments of experts while the AHP is used for dealing with the judgments so as to obtain optimal subjective weights of different factors.The spatial load density was forecasted by using the synthetically weights.An example demonstrates the superiority of the proposed model in spatial load density forecasting.

关键词： Spatial load forecasting load density cloud theory fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

作者: GAO YAN YANG REN GANG LI WEI

作者单位: China Agriculture University;Beijing Electric Power Economic Research Institute in China China Agriculture University Beijing Electric Power Economic Research Institute in China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第五届中国国际供电会议(GIRED)

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 1-4

在线出版日期: 2012-09-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）