Analysis of Influencing Factors for Credit Risk of China Real Estate Companies Based on Logistic Model

摘要：

　　The credit default risk of the real estate companies is increasing rapidly,so its analysis and control have important practical significance.This paper analyzed the influence of various factors on the credit default risk of real estate companies in China from three levels,namely macroeconomy level,meso-industry level and microcompany level.Principal component analysis (PCA) method and Logistic model were taken to assess and predict the credit default risk of real estate companies in China and we compared the predictive ability of Logistic model with 4 other commonly used risk assessment models.Logistic model showed stronger assessment and prediction ability,and in addition to financial factors,Macroeconomy Factor also affect the credit default risk of real estate companies in China seriously.

关键词： real estate companies credit default risk Logistic model regression analysis principal component analysis

作者: LIU Qiong ZHANG Weiwei

作者单位: School of Economics and Management,Harbin Institute of Technology Weihai,China,264209

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: the 5th (2013)International Conference on Financial Risk and Corporate Finance Management(第五届(2013)金融风险与公司金融国际研讨会)

会议地点: 大连

会议语种:英文

页码: 126-130

在线出版日期: 2013-06-29（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）